The term “three-generation succession” is a rarity even in the wildest annals of global monarchical history. Yet, it is the defining prefix for North Korea. The baton of power was passed seamlessly through the bloodline, from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il, and then to Kim Jong-un. This bizarre power structure, utterly baffling to outside common sense, has stood firm despite decades of varied “collapse theories.” Now, the world’s attention naturally turns to the next chapter. Is a fourth-generation hereditary succession truly possible in North Korea? This is not merely a question of curiosity; it is a critical inquiry that will determine the future of the Korean Peninsula and the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia.
My assessment, to state the conclusion first, is this: “Institutionally, the fourth succession is being prepared with extreme meticulousness, but realistically, it has fallen into a swamp of unprecedented uncertainty.” We must coolly analyze this precarious situation, where the forces of possibility and impossibility are in a tense standoff.
The Magic Spell of ‘Paektu Bloodline’ and the Politics of Fear
Those arguing for the high possibility of a fourth succession wield, perhaps, the most potent argument: the myth of the ‘Paektu Bloodline.’ The North Korean system is not just a standard dictatorship; it is akin to a “religious theocracy.” The bloodline of Kim Il-sung, the “founding father,” is the sole, absolute source of legitimacy for rule in North Korea. North Koreans are indoctrinated from birth to feel absolute loyalty toward the Kim family. Ideological emptiness was filled with familial mysticism. The frequent public appearances of Kim Jong-un’s young daughter (Kim Ju-ae) must be interpreted as a highly calculated maneuver. It is an effort to inoculate the public against any aversion to a future ruler and to visually stamp the “eternity of the Paektu Bloodline.”
Furthermore, the politics of fear and the total monopolization of power established by Kim Jong-un provide a solid physical foundation for a fourth succession. In the early days of his rule, he solidified his personal control through merciless purges, including the execution of his own uncle, Jang Song-thaek. Key positions within the party, the military, and the government are filled with individuals fiercely loyal to him. Having effectively blocked any possibility of organized internal revolt, the structural environment is set so that any successor he designates can enter the core of power with minimal resistance.
The Expiration Date of Breadless Loyalty: Economic Hardship and the MZ Generation
However, the arguments on the opposing side are equally formidable—perhaps more realistic and lethal. The single biggest obstacle blocking the fourth succession is the chronic economic hardship. Kim Il-sung’s promise of “rice and beef soup” remains unfulfilled three generations later. On the contrary, powerful international sanctions and the prolonged self-imposed blockade due to COVID-19 have strangled the North Korean economy to near-death. Loyalty toward the ‘Paektu Bloodline’ inevitably weakens in the face of starvation. The discontent of citizens whose survival is threatened is the most fundamental explosive that can shake the stability of the regime. If the time of the fourth succession coincides with a major famine or an economic collapse, the regime will find it difficult to sustain itself.
An even more terrifying variable is the generational shift inside North Korea. The younger generation, often called the “Jangmadang Generation” (Market Generation), is starkly different from their predecessors. This generation learned to survive through markets rather than state rationing, and they have been exposed to the outside world via South Korean dramas and movies. For them, unconditional loyalty to the Kim family or ideological justification is merely an outdated relic. They value practicality and their personal lives. Kim Jong-un’s declaration of a “war against anti-socialist elements” and his intensified ideological control over the youth are paradoxical proof that they pose the greatest threat to the regime. Forcing yet another succession upon a generation whose loyalty has dried up could be akin to lighting a match to a bomb waiting to explode.
The Giant Variable Named China, and Our Attitude
From an international perspective, the role of China is absolute. China is extremely wary of chaos in North Korea spilling over into its borders. Consequently, China does not spare economic or diplomatic support to maintain the stability of the North Korean regime. This acts as an external pillar enabling the fourth succession. However, China’s support will not be unconditional. If extreme confusion arises during the succession process or if North Korea takes action detrimental to China’s national interests, Beijing’s attitude can change at any moment. China desires a “stable North Korea,” not “the eternal rule of the Kim family” itself.
Closing: Will History Repeat, or Will It Break?
North Korea’s fourth succession is not simply a question of whether a specific dynasty continues. It is a desperate stage that tests whether the world’s worst politics of fear and brainwashing can still hold currency in the civilized era of the 21st century.
Right now, North Korea is walking a tightrope between the legacy of the past (the legitimacy of succession) and the pain of the present (economic incompetence). Kim Jong-un attempts to strengthen the legacy of the past by putting forward his daughter, but the reality of the pain—the impoverished lives of the citizens and the changing consciousness of the younger generation—is growing sharper.
Ultimately, the success of the fourth succession depends not on who becomes the successor, but on “what kind of future for survival” that successor can show the North Korean people. The magic spell of the ‘Paektu Bloodline’ is already nearing its expiration date. A power that cannot provide bread cannot be maintained by fear alone, and even that fear can become powerless against the tide of generational change.
History often appears to repeat itself, but it can spring in an entirely different direction at a decisive moment. Will North Korea’s fourth succession become the completion of that bizarre repetition, or will it become the final link where the chain finally breaks? We must watch this precarious site of history with a sharper gaze than ever before.